Nevada vs. UL Lafayette

The Ragin' Cajuns have to feel comfortable in this one, but that can be dangerous. They have won and covered the New Orleans Bowl, which is right in their own back yard, three straight years. Lafayette's strength on defense is stuffing the run but they have been suspect against the pass. But, Nevada is a very poor passing team that generates just 6.3 yards per attempt vs. teams that average allowing 7.3. But Nevada is here based on their running game and they will have success with that in this game. The offense has been getting stronger as the year has gone on and they come into this one averaged 34.3 points over their last four games. UL Lafayette may keep it on the ground here as well, as that is where Nevada is vulnerable on defense. This game should come down to a ground war, so I think the total is too high. And I think the oddsmakers have underestimated the Wolf Pack's ground attack. Nevada has gone for over 220 yards on the ground in each of their last five games. QB Cody Fajardo is a true dual threat, generating 997 yards on the ground, while RB Don Jackson has run for 932. James Butler is also over 600 yards on the ground. While Lafayette has been good against the run, this is a whole new level for them, and will be the difference in this game. These teams have combined to average 86 rushing plays per game, and over 93 in the second half of the season. You might be tempted to favor Lafayette based on the location of this game but in recent years, "home" Bowl teams have fared poorly against the number as the oddsmakers have (over)compensated for that. Take Nevada to win here and take the UNDER.