Nevada at Iowa

Nevada plays its fourth game with a winning record looking to bounce back after a 55-41 loss to Incarnate Word. The loss isn't as bad as it might appear as Incarnate Word ranks ninth in the FCS. Last year, Incarnate Word went 10-3 with a 42-34 victory over a Texas State squad that lost just 29-20 to Baylor. Nevada had a winning record last year and has two decent QBs in Nate Cox (372 yards, 2 TDs, no picks) and Shane Illingworth (152 yards), the latter a transfer from Oklahoma State. Nevada is 16-5-1 ATS after a spread loss, 62-40 ATS after allowing 6.25+ yards per play, and 29-14 ATS after getting 280+ passing yards in the last contest. Iowa is a huge favorite but has a terrible offense. The Hawkeyes opened with a 7-3 win over South Dakota State, then lost to Iowa State, 10-7. The offense averaged just 3.4 yards per rush last season and lost All-America center Tyler Linderbaum to the NFL. In 2022, the ground game is averaging a ridiculous 1.9 yards per carry with QB Spencer Petras (0 TDs, 2 INTS) completing just 45.1% of his passes. Iowa is 11-24 ATS at home after allowing 7 points or fewer in the first half of two consecutive games. In addition, college home favorites like Iowa are 90-154 ATS after scoring nine points or fewer. Play Nevada.