Nevada at Boise State

Nevada is off of a 7-2 campaign and continues to be undervalued, on a 12-5 spread run. They were a dog in the opener but beat Cal of the Pac 12, 22-17. They have a balanced attack behind junior QB Carson Strong (7 TDs, 2 INTs) and power RB Toa Taua (6.2 yards per carry). Nevada is 11-3 ATS after surrendering 200+ yards rushing in the last contest, as well as 23-11 ATS after a game gaining 280+ yards passing. The Wolfpack come off a bye week with extra time to rest and prepare. Boise State had to play last week and has two losses already, including a 21-20 defeat to Oklahoma State as a favorite. Boise is 8-19 ATS versus teams that commit one or fewer turnovers per game. The ground game hasn't been impressive with leading rusher George Holani averaging 3.2 yards per attempt, and the whole backfield is averaging 2.5 yards per attempt. Nevada has covered six of the last eight meetings, and college football teams like Boise State that are favored between 3.5 to 10 points are 22-54 ATS if they're averaging 125 yards rushing or less. Play Nevada.