Nevada at Boise State

While all the pundits discuss who is #1 amongst LSU, Alabama and Oklahoma, once again laying in the weeds waiting for someone to stumble is Boise State. They have knocked on the door of the BCS Championship game and will likely be in the discussion again when all is said and done this season. They already beat Georgia decisively on the road and their most difficult game on the schedule remaining is vs. TCU and they get them on the blue carpet. Meanwhile, Nevada at 1-2 SU and ATS comes to town this week. This is the team that shocked the Broncos a year ago and you can bet Boise State has a message to send. The Wolfpack have revamped their offense with Colkin Kaepernick, the orchestrator of that upset having departed. This game has been circled by the Broncos as the Wolf Pack stole a dream last season and I expect this to be a monumental payback game. The Broncos have won 69 straight games as a home favorite and in those games they are 45-22-2 ATS, doing so to an average line of -22.2 ppg. This one is in their sweet spot with the Broncos having a message to deliver and the talent to do so. Nevada has shown that they can lose big (lost by 49 at Oregon three weeks ago). Under Chris Ault, this team is just 6-15 ATS on the road in non-conference games. Boise State should win this one big.