Nevada at Arizona

This is simply too many points. Arizona doesn't perform well as a favorite. They are just 47-76 ATS in their last 123 games when giving points. They are 11-24 ATS in their last 35 games when laying 10.5 to 21 points. They are also 0-4 ATS in their last four following a win. The Wildcats play in the PAC-12, which has become a strong offensive conference in recent years, and it has elevated their numbers on both sides of the ball. They gave up 31+ points in four conference games last year, but in their three out-of-conference games they gave up less than that in total, allowing 26 points to the three teams. The prior season they played two teams from outside the conference that were not power conference teams and allowed a total of just 17 points. They allowed 31+ in seven of their eight conference games. That is 43 points allowed to five teams or 8.6 per contest. Nevada just played another PAC-12 team last week and the total points were 37. Last week's opponent, Washington State, plays fast and throws on almost every down. This game has the look of a lot of points, but history tells us otherwise. Nevada has played eight straight to the UNDER, and Arizona has played six of their last seven to the UNDER. Take the points with Nevada and also go with the UNDER in this one.