Navy at Notre Dame

Notre Dame is 5-2 with the two losses to USC and Michigan being close. Maybe the Fighting Irish are turning the corner back to respectability. Maybe they are really close - heck they aren't that far from 7-0. Not! Let's look past the 5-2 straight-up record. Those five wins came against teams they were supposed to beat. The Irish have been a favorite in all but one game this season. The reality is, they have underperformed - not overperformed. This is evidenced by their 1-6 ATS record. Yes, they have won games, but for the most part they have squeaked by when they were supposed to win easily. They have not covered the spread yet as a favorite. Like those other lines, this one is inflated due to the name and TV coverage. The reality is that the Irish should be laying closer to a touchdown in this game - not double digits. Notre Dame used to destroy Navy year-in-and-year out. They had won this game 43 straight times before 2007. But Navy won that game 46-44. The following year Navy lost by just 6 points. Need more proof of inflated Irish lines, especially in this matchup? The last nine times these teams have met in South Bend, Navy is 9-0 ATS! These teams are nearly the same statistically. Notre Dame is averaging 31 points per game, Navy 29. The Irish give up 23 per game, Navy 21 per game. Both have won six games. I'm not saying these teams are equals, but they are closer than this large spread.