Missouri at Kansas

The public will love the Tigers here, but WAIT! Lost in last week's box scores was the fact that the Huskers small, slow linebackers were finally exposed and the fact that Kansas actually shut Colorado's offense down very well. Colorado got a load of points from special teams and turnovers leading to a misleading final score. In fact, last game Kansas had 3 turnovers and Missouri had none. Nebraska had four - again a misleading final outcome in that game. This is also a rivalry game of the highest order and we know what can happen in those. Home teams with a good defense (16-21 PPG) facing a high-scoring conference opponent (34+ PPG) are an amazing 40-12 (77%) over the last 10 seasons. Remember, a good defense beats a good offense, especially in rivalry games. Bottom line here is KU's defense is second only to UT's in the Big 12, and they are at home and will give Brad Smith all he can handle. Mizzou is coming off a misleading big win and could very well get exposed here and lose outright. Missouri is 1-9 ATS after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. And, get this: Road teams off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog against opponent off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more are just 7-22 STRAIGHT-UP over the past 10 seasons. The theme here is simple: Kansas is a lot better than last week demonstrated and Missou is worse. Kansas for three stars here.