Mississippi State at Alabama

This is an old-fashioned SEC showdown featuring physical defense in the trenches. Mississippi State is sixth in the nation in yards allowed, #11 against the run, second in points surrendered (12.3 per game). They've allowed more than 20 points only once all season and have allowed a total of 44 points the last four contests. They've also allowed just three touchdowns over the last five games. Mississippi State is on a 17-5 run UNDER the total, plus 46-22-1 UNDER in SEC play. Bulldogs' QB Nick Fitzgerald lacks consistency and failed to throw for over 100 yards in a three-game stretch this season. He will find the going rough against an Alabama defense that is #11 in the nation in yards allowed and against the run, seventh in points surrendered (14.1 pg). The Crimson Tide is 19-6-1 UNDER the total at home against a team with a winning road record. The UNDER is also 8-2-1 when these rivals clash. Back the UNDER here.