Mississippi at Mississippi State

If you look at the records, this looks like a no-brainer win for Miss State. They are 6-5 and have a couple quality wins vs. league foes while Ole Miss was shut-out during SEC play with nothing to show in the win column. But we actually feel that the difference between these teams is not that great. Ole Miss has been competitive all season long. They were within 10 of LSU with under three minutes to go, lost to Florida by 6, Alabama by 3, Missouri by 13, and Auburn by 14. They, for the most part, have played good and been very competitive. Miss State is 1-8 ATS in home games off a loss to a conference rival the last three years, and 5-16 ATS in home games after gaining 100 yards or less. They are also just 5-15 ATS after a game where they have had a turnover margin of -3  or worse. Road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points returning 8+ starters on offense have covered 65% of the time (65-35) when pitted against a defense that has returned five or fewer starters. We will ride the dog in this one, as the intense rivalry is the equalizer.