Minnesota at Penn State

The Nittany Lions have been back on the National map the last three years and will come into this one at 5-1. But there's some cause for concern for the Lions this season. The offense just isn't what it has been after losing most of its speed and game-breakers. Last year's team scored 45+ in seven of their games. Through five games against FBS teams this season, they have not topped the 35-point mark. Their lone loss came at home in a game they were favored by double-digits as the offense scored 10 points. But they have scored 28+ in five of their six games, you say? Look who they came against! They played Akron, Syracuse, Temple and E. Illinois. The spreads in those games? -29.5, -29.5, -29.5 and -39.5. So when you are laying 30 points, scoring 28 or 31 points just isn't impressive. The defense is still very strong, but when you start laying 17 with an offense that has shown it is not capable of piling up the points against good teams, you’re in dangerous territory. Minnesota has shown a capable and consistent offense that has scored 20+ in all six games, including versus Wisconsin, California and Air Force. If they get to even 14 or 17 here, Penn State will be hard pressed to cover this number very large number. The Golden Gophers are 4-0 ATS on the road in their last four as a dog of 10.5 or more, and the Lions have dropped their last six against the number after rushing for under 100 yards. They are also 18-31 ATS under coach Paterno after a cover as a double-digit favorite. The Penn State offense is not the same as it was and this is too many points. I'm backing the Golden Gophers in this one.