Minnesota at Iowa

The Iowa Hawkeyes are 6-1 but failed their only big test losing to Penn St. 31-0. They are the typical Iowa team. They have a strong defense, but one of the worst offenses in NCAAF. The team is 6-1 on the season and has been out-gained by 324-249 per game, or a deficit of 75 total yards. The offense was weak to begin with, but they have lost their QB and have turned almost exclusively to the run. They ran the ball 47 times in 61 plays. I expect more of the same in this one, but Minnesota is going to pack the box and force them into the air. I don't like taking a team laying points when the total is in the low 30s, as they fit into a much smaller window to cover. That is what history has said as well. The last 20 games in college football with a total of 35 or fewer points have seen the home favorite go 2-16-2 ATS, failing to cover by 10 PPG. Make the play on Minnesota.