Minnesota at Alabama

Bama comes into this one with the best defense in the country and thrives on stuffing opposing offenses. They stymied Auburn for long stretches in the rivalry game in November and should be able to put a clamp on the vaunted UM tailback duo. Not good for Minnesota given their inability to move the ball through the air. Minnesota owns the 112th-ranked passing defense while Alabama led the nation in this category, giving up just 116.5 yards per game through the air. Minnesota is 6-1 UNDER in road games when they gain 150 or less net passing yards since 1992 while Alabama is 14-4 UNDER when their defense allows 100 to 150 net passing yards over the same span. The Tide offense is pretty bad, too which makes the under a nice play here. This one has all the makings of a defensive struggle. Games in which the total is between 42.5 and 49 feature a team off a game in which they gained 2 or less rushing yards/attempt (Bama) have gone under 70 out of 108 times over the last 5 Seasons. The Gophers are 1-7 ATS versus good defensive teams (allowing <4.5 yards/play) and 1-7 vs. teams that give up under 17 points per game over the last 3 seasons. They are also just 2-10 ATS vs. winning teams. The Alabama faithful are travelling down to Nashville in droves for this one. Two star pick on the defensive power that is the Tide and one star on the under here as well.