Middle Tennessee State at Troy

Troy has the potential to be a little flat in this game as they won a big game on the road their last time on the field vs. Arkansas State - the team that was supposed to challenge them for the Sun Belt Title. Troy has had a hard time running the ball this season as featured back Dujuan Harris has carried 57 times for only 2.8 yards per carry. QB Levi Brown, who led the Trojans to a 5-3 record after Jamie Hampton went down with a knee injury hasn't quite put up the numbers he did a year ago. Last year, Brown threw for 15 TDs with just three INTs, while this season he has five TD passes, but has already exceeded his INT total of a year ago. Middle Tennessee is an experienced team as they have returned 19 starters from a year ago, and won't be intimidated by the atmosphere at Troy. The Blue Raiders have already gone to ACC country and beaten Maryland, so they'll be plenty confident here. The Blue Raiders put up 438 yards of offense in that game, and followed it with 456 vs. North Texas. This team is now 5-1 ATS after piling up 450+ yards. Experience (MTSU 16 returning starters from last year vs. 12 for Troy) will pay off here. I like Middle Tennessee to keep this one close to the end.