Michigan at Iowa

Michigan is a much-improved team, but their miracle finish vs. Notre Dame at home has changed this team into something they are not, at least in the eyes of the public and oddsmakers. We saw a hint of it last week as they opened as a favorite and by kickoff were a four-point underdog. They went on to show the truth in a loss at not-so-highly regarded Michigan State. After four games at home to start the season, last week was their first road game and they must do it again on the road this week. The biggest hole for Michigan is on defense. Eliminating uncompetitive games vs. Eastern Michigan and Western Michigan, the Wolverines have allowed 31 points per game. They face an Iowa team that has the defensive prowess to shut down the Wolverines offense, and that simply puts added pressure on a defense that has trouble getting stops. We were on Iowa vs. Penn State as a 5-unit play two weeks ago when they won as a 10 point dog. I liked them so much in that game because of their defense. The same applies here. The Hawkeyes won that game by holding Penn State (who has better offense than Michigan) to just 10 points on the road. And they were able to generate 21 against a Penn State defense that is much better than Michigan's. So, if Iowa can win in Happy Valley, they should have no problem here at home vs. a weaker team. The Hawkeyes have delivered a 37-17 ATS mark in their last 54 at home. They are 10-2 ATS as a favorite from 3.5-10 points and 8-1 ATS after 5+ straight wins under Kirk Ferentz. Michigan is 2-6-1 ATS the past few years as a Big Ten underdog. And, Rich Rodriguez is just 1-10 ATS vs. teams that allow14 or fewer points per game! I like Iowa in this one.