Michigan State at Northwestern

The Northwestern Wildcats became Bowl eligible at 6-5 by winning each of their last four games. That is on the heels of a five game losing streak. Looking closer at the four wins, three of them have come at the expense of Minnesota, Indiana and Rice. Those three teams have a combined record of 7-26 on the season, so all the streak has really accomplished is keeping this pointspread under a TD. That puts the value on the side of Michigan St., who at 9-2 is a legitimately good team. The Spartans are 9-2 to a schedule that includes Ohio St., Nebraska, Notre Dame, Wisconsin and Michigan. When you look at the Wildcats’ 6-5 mark in addition to the three wins mentioned above, they have beaten E. Illinois and Boston College - another pair of weak teams. They have one good win the entire season vs. Nebraska by 3. Michigan St. is far and away more than a TD better than Northwestern on the road, and has taken care of business as a favorite at 5-1 ATS in their last six. The Wildcats are just 16-36 ATS following a straight-up win, and 1-5 ATS in their last six at home. Take Michigan St. in this one.