Miami Ohio at Toledo

Miami of Ohio was 11-3 last season including a close one against Toledo, 21-17. They're off to a 1-3 start with a tough schedule, losing to Northwestern (13-6) of the Big Ten, Cincinnati (27-16), and at No. 17 Notre Dame. Despite the challenging schedule, the defense is allowing 22 points per game. Miami of Ohio is on an 11-3 ATS run on the road. Toledo is in a difficult situational spot, home from a two-game trip. They shocked the world with a 41-17 victory at Mississippi State as a +10.5 dog, then lost at Western Kentucky, 26-21, as a favorite. They're one-dimensional on offense averaging just 3.7 yards per rush. They're also on a 3-4 ATS run at home. Play Miami of Ohio.