Miami Florida at Florida State

How the mighty have fallen. Miami, playing a schedule that has included Marshall, Duke, Florida International, North Carolina, Georgia Tech and A&M at home, should be sitting at 6-1 (assuming a loss at Oklahoma). Instead, they are 4-3 and that includes a 23-9 home win over FIU as a 33 point favorite. The Hurricanes seem to be heading in the wrong direction as last week they were out-gained by Georgia Tech by 150 yards at home. They were down the week before to a mediocre NC team 27-0 at the half, and led Duke at home by three points midway through the fourth quarter. They went on the road to Oklahoma and were absolutely pounded, garnering just seven first downs, and allowing 26. Here is a team giving up 12 points per game at home but 44-ppg on the road. We saw it last year too. They gave up 10.6-ppg at home, but on the road 21.4ppg. Nothing has changed. Florida State has a very ambitious schedule this season. It features road games at Clemson, Colorado, Wake Forest, BC, Virginia Tech and Florida, as well as a home game against Alabama. This is still by and large a young team that is growing. Last year they had just nine scholarship seniors, and now have 18 and used 17 true freshman - the most in the country last year. Those players are developing. Young teams tend to do better at home and such is the case here. The offense has 27.3-ppg at home to 18.3-ppg on the road. They are allowing just 16 at home. These teams mirror each other in that respect, and on a neutral field these teams might be close, but Miami is 10 points worse on the road and FSU is 10 points better at home. It makes for a lot of value in this one, and we will ride the Seminoles at home.