Memphis at Bowling Green

This game will be a shootout pitting DeAngelo Williams running against Omar Jacobs and Bowling Green's aerial offense. I expect BG to come out on top. Memphis is 6-17 ATS after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins and 2-10 ATS off a double digit road win since 1992. The Tigers defense has been torched throughout the season against offenses much worse than Bowling Green's. Memphis has give up at least 26 points in four of its last five games including 49 and 56 to Cincy and Louisville is back to back weeks. Both teams will score early and often here, but the MAC is traditionally a very good bowl conference, and it will continue here. The Falcons will load the box and force Memphis to throw the ball. They will struggle. BG's defense has also caused a boat-load of turnovers in the MAC this season, while Memphis has difficulty in both causing turnovers and capitalizing on them as well. These two teams average a combined 967 yards and 80 points of offense per game. Bowling Green qualifies for this nice trend: Games featuring a team with an incredible offense (averaging 6.4 or more yards/play), after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 54-22 OVER (71%) since 1992. Two stars on Bowling Green and one star on the Over