Massachusetts at Northern Illinois

Northern Illinois pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the season when they went into South Bend and took down the Irish 16-14 as a better than 4 TD dog. Things have not been the same for the Huskies since that magic moment as they have followed the huge win by losing to Buffalo, who just lost to UConn 47-3, and also lost to NC State. UMass is 1-4 to start the season, and almost beat Miami, O. last week as they fell by just three points. Northern Illionois has serious issues on offense, and here we are looking at them as a better than 17 point favorite, as a team that averages 17.7ppg against FBS competition. UMass is a tough team to wrap around as they have never won more than four games in a season in their 12 years at the FBS level, but we are not asking them to win here. UMass however appears to be better than their 1-4 record. Since the start of the 2021 season UMass has allowed 40 or more points in a game in 18 of 41 games. They have not done so through five games this season, and the way Northern Illinois has struggled to score, I like UMass here.