Marshall at Middle Tennessee State

This is a tough one to understand. Middle Tennessee is 3-5 on the season, has lost to Louisiana Tech, and Western Kentucky by 29 and 30 points respectively, and they are now a one-point favorite at home vs. an 8-1 Marshall team?  I understand Devon Johnson is out for Marshall, but they have a lot more than that, as you don't get to 8-1 with just one player. That is especially true when the power behind this team is a defense that has allowed 11.4 points per game in their last five, and has held teams to 4.7 passing yards per attempt on the season, and that is better than the slightly above average passing attack of Middle Tennessee, so I think Marshall has the edge here in a big way. The Herd is a momentum-driven team, and stands in at 9-2 ATS after a blowout win of 20 points or more. The Blue Raiders are 2-8 ATS after allowing 40, and 0-6 ATS following a spread loss. Make the play on Marshall.