LSU at Mississippi State

Things aren't always as they appear. The public jumping on LSU here because they are focused on what they think they saw. LSU put up an impressive win over Oregon in their opener, and won by 46 points last week. Mississipi State lost last week to Auburn - a team that wasn't supposed to be that good this year. But, when we look deeper, the results may be misleading. The Bulldogs certainly let one slip away on the road last week at Auburn. On the scoreboard they lost the game, but a quick tour through the numbers shows that Mississippi State outplayed Auburn. A goal-line tackle on the final play preserved a win for Auburn, but take a look at the stats. The Bulldogs held Auburn to just 4 of 12 on third down. Miss State outgained the Tigers by 150 yards, won the time of posession battle 37 minutes to 23 and put up 10 more first downs. The fact that they missed notching the W by a few inches leads to a home underdog status here and I love the value. LSU opened their season with an impressive win at Cowboy Stadium in Dallas over Oregon. They were on the wrong side of the numbers in that game however, getting out-gained by the Ducks. Oregon coughed the ball up four times in crucial spots, giving LSU a misleading big win in what was really a much closer game. My computer matchup for this game has LSU winning by a field goal. This is a crucial game for the Bulldogs as they end it at either 2-1 or 1-2, a big difference. With the national TV spotlight, the crowd will be raucous and I expect a great effort from the home team here. Under Les Miles, LSU is just 15-30 ATS in SEC games and 11-22 ATS coming off a home win. Take the Bulldogs here.