LSU at Mississippi State

We were on Georgia last week to beat LSU. Although they still have a shot at the BCS Title game and the SEC West, that loss had to take some of the wind out of the Tigers' sails. This is an inside-out team, as the Bayou Bengals are usually potent defensively, and mediocre on offense. But this year they are strong offensively and potent against the pass, but have been less than average when trying stopping the run. Mississippi State can run the ball very well, so their offense matches up well here against the LSU defense. One thing this team has been doing well at home for years is playing defense. They have allowed just 14 total points in their two home games this season, and over their last 15 here only two teams have scored more than 24. In those last 15 home games, the Bulldogs have allowed opponents a stingy 15.1 points per game. That puts this rather lofty home dog number in question. Since coming to the Bayou, Les Miles has struggled to meet expectations within the SEC. His LSU teams are just 26-38 ATS vs. SEC foes. The number is too big , so take the points.