LSU at Arkansas

The Tigers are 10-1 and currently reside in 5th place in the latest BCS Poll. The defense has carried them this season but in their big games, the defense has cracked, allowing 29 to Florida, 24 to Auburn and 21 to Alabama not to mention 36 last week to Mississippi. The offense is average, so facing a high octane Arkansas offense led by Ryan Mallett, on the road, is a big chore. The Hogs are almost impossible to stop at home on the offensive end as over the last two years spanning 11 games at home, they are averaging 45 ppg. The Razorbacks are a sharp 12-2 ATS in their last 14 after a win, while LSU is 1-5-1 ATS after piling up 40+ in their last game. They are also 11-21 ATS under Les Miles when coming off a home win. They are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. Arkansas. Meanwhile, Arkansas is 11-3 ATS since last sesaon vs. winning opponents. I like the home team to win and cover this one.