LSU at Alabama

The Crimson Tide have become a dynasty under Nick Saban, and are the odds-on favorite to win the National Championship for the fourth time in five years. The Tide seems to reload every year, and by this time of the season the defense just punishes teams. That has been the case this year as they have out-scored their last five opponents by an unthinkable 215-20. LSU simply does not have the defense they have brought to this game in recent years. Although they will be fired up, I just don't see them doing much more than slowing down Alabama on occasion and keeping them from scoring 40. The bigger problem is going to be getting points on this Tide team at home, and I don't see the Tigers getting past 10 or 13 here. LSU is 5-0 at home but just 2-2 on the road. They have had little success when facing the #1 team in the country where they are 2-11-1 in 14 tries. And, they are 0-5 ATS in their last five after allowing less than 20 points. Under Les Miles, the Tigers are just 10-22 ATS vs. great rushing teams like Bama (teams averaging 4.75+ yards per carry). In Alabama, Saban is 46-33 ATS as a favorite and 31-17 ATS following a 17+ point win. Alabama is 35-17-1 to the UNDER in November, as their defense gets better with every game. And under Nick Saban, this team is 28-13 UNDER as a home favorite including 17-7 UNDER when favored in this range (10.5 to 21 points). Make the play on Alabama and take the UNDER in this one.