Louisville at Virginia Tech

Will Va. Tech show up here? Only weeks ago they were in major contention for the MNC game and a BCS bowl bid, but now land in a less than great bowl. Instead of playing Penn State in the Orange Bowl, they get Louisville here. Their defense is great but Louisville can score in bunches. I like Louisville's huge rushing advantage here. In road games, they gained 7 yards per rush vs. teams that averaged 5.2 give up. Louisville is 16-7 ATS overall the last two seasons and 9-1 ATS vs. ACC teams over hte past ten years. In matchups between two winning teams, favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 6 or more are just 10-35 ATS since 1992. While Tech wins this running away on paper, I'm counting on Va Tech to be a bit down here and because of that will back Louisville with the points for two stars. This game also qualifies for an UNDER system I have that is 26-7 recently in bowls. In addition to that system, neutral field games where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game involving 2 very good non-conference teams have gone UNDER 77% (52-16) since 1992. Tech's defense will cause Louisville problems. Two stars on the UNDER as well.