Louisville at NC State

The good news for Louisville is they have a pro QB in Brian Brohm and an offense that puts up huge points and over 600 yards a game. The bad news is they are allowing 40 per game over their last three, and lost as a 37 point favorite at home to a Syracuse team that can't get out of their own way. So now they come out angry, and with a purpose right? WRONG! It was said quite some time ago, beware of history as it might repeat itself. The fact is, when a team that is percieved to be so good and so potent, loses outright as a huge favorite, the problem usually goes beyond the talent on the field. Something else is wrong. Like an electrical problem with a car, the diagnosis is difficult and hard to find, but it's obvious something is severely wrong! We aren't going to make a case for a dominant NC State team. But you didn't need to make that case about Syracuse, Kentucky, or Middle Tennessee State either and all gave Louisville a fight. History shows that when teams lose as a 20+ point favorite, they don't bow their backs and come roaring back. In fact, they get hammered ATS, and often straight up the following week. Since 1997, 16 teams have lost as a 20+ point chalk and have come back when favored in their next game to go 2-14 ATS! The bottomline is something is wrong here, and these teams don't fix it! Six of those 14 ATS winners won outright. We've already seen one (Michigan losing to App. State and getting buried as an 8 point favorite by 32 to Oregon). We will ride the trend and play on NC State.