Louisville at Florida State

This is a good spot for Louisville behind dynamic QB Lamar Jackson (16 TDs, five INTs). He leads the team with 690 yards rushing, with the Cardinals ranked #28 in the nation in rushing, #20 in points (38.1 points per game). Louisville coach Bobby Petrino has put an emphasis on tackling during practice this week, to help shore up some of the issues the defense has had. Louisville is 10-3 UNDER the total on the road against teams with losing home records, plus 22-10-2 UNDER following a defeat. In addition, road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games off an upset loss as a double-digit home favorite are 46-14 ATS. They have a huge edge at quarterback, as Florida State lost QB Deondre Francois in Week 1, so freshman backup QB James Blackman (five TDs, four INTs) has been forced in. He comes off a game against Duke throwing two picks, one TD and the UNDER is 18-6 when the Seminoles play an ACC opponent. Florida State is also 10-4 UNDER at home against teams with a winning road record. Florida State is #121 in the nation in points scored (18.2 ppg) and Louisville is 11-2 ATS on the road off an upset loss, so back the dog in a defensive battle. Play and the UNDER the total.