Louisville at Connecticut

While having one of these teams at 4-3 and the other at 5-1 may be "normal" at this point in the season, few would have guessed which team would be which. Both teams have been a  big suprise. The Huskies have the #5 ranked defense in the entire country according to the stats, while Louisville is giving up 30 point sper game. But, sometimes stats are quite misleading. There is no doubt that UCONN is an improved team from last season. But how much? Our answer is not as much as the country believes. Let's take a deeper look within the numbers and reveal the truth. UCONN has recorded five wins on the season. They opened with a convincing win at Duke. Duke's offense is No. 112 out of 120 teams, and the Blue Devils were 1-28 in their last 29 games. The Huskies then beat D-1AA Maine at home. Their next game was against Temple, also at home. Temple is 3-28 in their last 31 games, with the wins coming against D-1A powerhouses Bowling Green, Akron and N. Illinois. The Temple offense at No. 99 in the country is the top offense the Huskies have seen all season! Temple won the game but a bad call, which the official admitted getting wrong on the last play of the game, put an early X-Mas gift in the left column for the Huskies. Then it was on to Pitt for the Big East opener. Pitt is rated No. 101 offensively, and is 0-4 getting hammered by everyone save two cupcakes on their schedule in E. Michigan and Grambling. They also beat Akron at home, who owns the No. 114 ranked offense in the country, and has three wins over Kent State, Army and W. Michigan. Then they go to Virginia and play the Cavs straight up, but lose by a single point. The Cavs' offense is ranked No. 109 in the country. Sense a pattern here regarding Connecticut's competition? Misleading stats? We'd say. The Huskies should be 4-2 against the worst schedule of any BCS team in the country, and having faced the worst average offense in the country. To recap, they faced No. 99, No. 101, No. 109, No. 112, No. 114 and a D-1AA team. How has that prepared this team for what they will see against Louisville? Louisville has a pro offense that will shock this unprepared and overconfident UCONN team and they won't know what hit them. Louisville has a pro QB that completes 68% of his passes and makes no mistakes. Brohm has thrown for 23 TDs to just four picks. They also run for more yards than the Huskies, and have done it vs. much better competition. We are aware of the porous Louisville defense, but it isn't as bad as it looks or seems. Last week they went to Cincinnati and beat a very good football team, allowing only 24 points. The past three weeks have seen them drop the points allowed from 40 in the three prior games to 26 in the last three. They have been improving. UCONN does not have an advantage anywhere on the field over Louisville. Last year Louisville torched this same UCONN defense for 48 points. There is another factor at work here. This game is likely to be played in heavy rain, but not much wind. That will slow the Huskies down, and the QB with the accurate and stronger arm is going to have an even greater advantage. UCONN was a 29-point underdog last year and it wasn't enough. Have they gotten 26 points better than last year? Even in the year it went to the Motor City Bowl (2003) this UCONN team lost to BC by 10 and WVA by 34. Since then (2004-07) they have played 11 teams that were in the upper tier of the country. The results were a 22 point loss to South Florida last year and 12, 26, and 32-point losses to WVA. And, losses to Louisville by 10 and 31 points and a loss to Rutgers last year by 11. They dropped games to Georgia Tech by 15 and 20 points and BC by 10 and Pitt by 24. The fact is they have not been within double digits of any good team in four years, and we don't see that changing here.