Louisiana Tech at Texas A&M

Am I nuts? Yes it's going out on a limb to take a double-digit dog straight up. But, I smell a possible upset brewing in College Station. Granted, the odds say this pick won't come through. But, at these odds, we only need to hit this kind of pick one out of seven times to make it profitable. I think there's quite a bit of value on this play. Offense won't be the problem at A&M. It is defense and their No. 106 ranking from a year ago needs to step-up for the Aggies to turn the corner. Working in a lot of young players into a new 3-4 scheme is going to cost them early. Just remember their home opener two years ago vs. Arkansas State. They were a 19-point favorite and lost the game outright. They needed a miracle as a 27-point favorite vs. Army to squeeze out a 4-point win as well. They also almost got picked off by Fresno State as a 17.5 point favorite. They have a 3-point win at home vs. Baylor as a 23-point favorite, so this certainly isn't impossible. Sonny Dykes takes over at LA Tech and he is known for big offenses as well as having the weapons to pull it off. The offense returns eight, including the QB and the entire OL. That's from a team a year ago that went on the road and lost to Boise State by just 10 and LSU by 8 - two of the toughest venues in the country. Under Mike Sherman, this A&M team owns a losing record overall and a losing record in non-conference games. I am taking a flyer on Louisiana Tech to pull of the major upset.