Kentucky at Mississippi State

Mississippi State is 3-1 at home this season, putting up 40 points per game on this field. They have dominated this series like no other, as they look to become the first team in this series to log five straight wins. The Wildcats are 5-13 ATS the past two seasons including 2-11 ATS as an underdog. Their biggest problems are a limited offense and run defense that is allowing opponents to churn out over 200 yards per game. That should open the door for Mississippi State QB Dak Prescott, the team's leading ground gainer with 8 rushing TDs, to find a lot of room running the football. The Bulldogs have topped the 200-yard mark running the ball, so the big mismatch here is the lack of defense against the run vs. an elite running team. Take the Bulldogs, who are 19-10 ATS as a favorite under head coach Dan Mullen.