Kentucky at Mississippi State

There is value on the Wildcats here, based on their 63-5 loss last week. Last week they were a completely depleted team physically and emotionally. They were a 25 point underdog coming off three straight against ranked opponents, and had to face Florida without their top two running backs and top wide reciever. While Kentucky remains a bit banged up, they went into Starksville two years ago and won. And, Mississippi State has not been a good team in the spot of a home favorite where they have been 0-6 ATS in their last six. The Wildcats have advantages across the board in this one, as the ofense ranks higher, the defense ranks higher, and perhaps most importantly, their special teams rank higher (#24 to Mississippi State's #88). I like the Wildcats as a live dog here. It seems like when two poor offenses meet, the odds-makers over-adjust especially late in the year. Teams that have an offense that produce 280-330 yards per game have played OVER in 44 of the last 60 meetings once we get past the mid-way point in the season. That is 73.3% of the time, when the total is in this low range. I will also back the OVER in this one.