img CFB

Kansas at Virginia Tech

January 3, 2008
img8:00 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

Virginia Tech is ranked #4 in the country in defense. It would appear that they have the strength on defense to stop this potent Kansas offense that has topped the 40 point mark in eight games. We are not convinced. Virginia Tech was a perfect fit this year playing in the ACC. There simply is not a top offense to be found in that conference this season. Boston College had the #33 ranked offense, but it was solely due to Matt Ryan. BC's was a completely one-dimensional offense that ranked near the bottom of the entire NCAA in rushing offense at #107. Clemson may have been the best offense that Virginia Tech saw this entire season, and the Tigers put up the most points against Virginia Tech in ACC games with 23. Clemson is only ranked #53. When Virginia Tech went against a team that could move the ball with both the run and the pass at LSU, they gave up 48! There are 120 teams in all and Virginia Tech spent eight games playing against teams with an offensive rank of 92! That is two-thirds of its schedule against horrible offenses. We showed you the results of the other four games above, and overall they played offenses ranked on average at #73, or in the bottom half of the NCAA. Kansas presents the biggest problem they will have see all season. The Jayhawks put up nearly 500 yards per game, and mix it up equally running and throwing. They suffered just one loss and that was to Missouri, and we all saw what they did to Arkansas. Kansas is similar to Virginia Tech in one regard -  their defense is ranked #12 in the country. They too have had difficulty stopping top offenses, but have completely dominated average or poor ones. They played six games against top 40 offenses, allowing 23.5 ppg. They also played six games against the bottom half of the NCAA offenses, and allowed just 7.5 ppg. Virginia Tech has an offense rated #101, or near the bottom of the NCAA. The Kansas defense has allowed 10 total points in three games vs offenses ranked 100 or lower. Kansas is the better team. They have one less loss, and went 10-1 ATS (best in the country) while Tech went just 7-5 ATS. So we have a team in Virginia Tech that is ranked 101 on offense, playing a team that allows just a FG per game against similar teams, and a team in Virginia Tech that has a highly regarded defense, but wasn't nearly as successful against complete and balanced offenses. Wrong team favored, Kansas wins!

4 units on Kansas +3 (-105) (risk 4 to return 4)
Result:
WIN
1
2
3
4
T
Kansas Jayhawks
7
10
0
7
24
Virginia Tech Hokies
0
7
7
7
21
odds odds
 
TAKE THE GUESSWORK OUT OF SPORTS BETTING

Get my free CFB picks and predictions.

Join 409,392 Subscribers!