Iowa State at Kansas State

Kansas State has had a great season in the win-loss column at 9-2. But, after a 7-0 start followed by back-to-back losses to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, this team has had trouble picking up the pieces. They are 9-2, but a deeper analysis shows that they could easily have a losing record on the season. They were lucky to win their opener vs. Eastern Kentucky 10-7. They squeaked out a 4-point win at Miami, Florida and snuck by at home vs. Baylor by a single point - all in their first four games. Missouri and Texas Tech were both one-possession wins by 7-points each. After the pair of losses, they went on to sneak out a 3-point OT win vs. A&M before squeezing by Texas by 4 in their last game. Credit given for winning the close ones, but we have to wonder if they aren't susceptible here. That is seven wins by one possession or less. Sure 9-2 looks good, but if just three of those seven went the other way they would be 6-5 just like Iowa State. The Cyclones have come a long way since the beginning of the season, especially on defense. They have allowed just 74 points in their last four games, which include games vs. Oklahoma State and Oklahoma and Texas Tech - teams that combined to average over 42 points per game. The expectation would be 126 allowed vs. those three teams alone so 74 is looking very good. Everyone knows what happened vs. Oklahoma State as they beat them as nearly a 4-TD underdog. They now get an overrated Wildcats team that ranks No. 93 in the country on offense, and has not put away anyone on their schedule except Kansas. Last game the Wildcats gained all of 121 total yards on offense. This game should go to the wire and I think Iowa State has a legitimate chance to win it. At +330, the oddsmakers are saying they have a 23% chance to win. I think it's closer to 40-50%, providing a big overlay. Play the Cyclones to win this one outright.