Iowa State at Baylor

This is the second straight road game for Iowa State. It's a ball-control offense that keeps games close, with a 16-10 win over Northern Iowa and a 27-17 loss to Iowa. Of their 11 regular-season games last season, six were decided by seven points or less. QB Brock Purdy hasn't had a great start with three TDs and three interceptions. The Cyclones are 18-38-3 ATS after getting less than 100 yards rushing in their last game, plus 5-12-1 ATS following a victory of 20+ points. They're favored, but they head to Waco to face unbeaten Baylor. The Bears have two outstanding playmakers in the backfield in RBs Trestan Ebner (317 yards, 7.5 yards per carry, and 64 receiving yards) and Abram Smith (122 yards rushing per game, 7.8 yards per carry). Baylor has the top rushing offense in the Big 12 (321.3 yards per contest), and they have covered six of eight against Iowa State. Also, college football home teams in conference action are 40-14 ATS after two straight covers as a double-digit favorite. Play Baylor.