This pick was released to clients on December 31, 2023 at 11:03AM ET.
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Iowa vs. Tennessee

January 1, 2024
img1:05 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

Iowa managed to win 10 games while averaging just 16.6 points per game and the Hawkeyes did it with the fifth-ranked defense in the country in total yards allowed and they were No. 4 in scoring defense yielding only 13.2 points per game. Now the Hawkeyes will be up against a first-time starter at quarterback for Tennessee in true freshman Nico Iamaleava as Joe Milton has opted out. The Volunteers also will be without their top two rushers as Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small also have decided not to play. Iowa has not much offense to speak of, but they get a break in this matchup as Tennessee will be missing four defensive starters, including most of its secondary. The Hawkeyes are 5-0 ATS their past five games as underdogs of 3.5-10.0 points and 4-0-1 ATS their past five bowl games, including last year's 21-0 win over Kentucky in the Music City Bowl. Tennessee lost two of its last three games (0-3 ATS) while allowing 32.7 points per game. Iowa has not had a lot of opt-outs for this game and Tennessee coach Josh Heupel has just one win as a head coach when his offense did not score at least 30 points and that seems very unlikely against the Hawkeye defense. Take Iowa ATS as my Bowl Game of the Year and on the moneyline.

2 units on Iowa +6 (-108) (risk 2 to return 3.85)
Result:
LOSS
1 unit on Iowa +203 (moneyline) (risk 1 to return 3.03)
Result:
LOSS
FINAL
1
2
3
4
F
Iowa Hawkeyes
0
0
0
0
0
Tennessee Volunteers img
0
14
7
14
35
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
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