Iowa at Penn State

Penn State continues to roll under Coach Paterno who must be 97 years old by now. While many have written his obituary, the fact is that he has assembled some good talent at Penn State, and has a very strong defense. The difference from this team and what he put out a year ago will be on the offensive side of the ball. Penn State was highly explosive offensively a year ago and it showed against their four out-of-conference games to start the season as they put up an average of over 53 points per game. This season, the offense has not been nearly as potent as they have scored just 30 ppg against some very weak teams. The defense will remain the force of this team, but the offense has already shown signs of struggle against weak teams as they lost three of the top four wide receivers of all time at Penn State. Iowa will have a more experienced Ricky Stanzi back to head the offense behind center. The Hawkeyes may have shown something this year as they always struggle against Iowa State, but completely thrashed them and the defense has looked tough. This has also been a good role for the Hawkeyes as they are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 as a 3.5-10 point dog, while it has been one of the worst for Penn State who is 5-12-1 ATS in that same role as a favorite. Iowa has done well in Happy Valley as they are 4-1 ATS their last five trips in here. Kirk Ferentz is 46-33 ATS at Iowa in conference games. Under Paterno, the Nittany Lions are 16-31 ATS vs. teams that allow 310 or fewer yards per game. And, they are 0-14 ATS when facing a team that allows under 13 points per game! In what looks to be a defensive struggle, getting double-digitis is a gift. I'm going with Iowa in this one.