Iowa vs. Kentucky

This is a good matchup for Iowa. Neither team has a great offense, but Iowa's defense is dominant, as usual. The Hawkeyes ranked fourth in the nation in total defense, 22nd on third down (33.71%), and sixth in points given up (14.4 ppg). Iowa is on a 4-1 SU/ATS run, 90-68 ATS on natural grass, plus 32-16 ATS when the total is 42 or less. Kentucky will be without starting QB Will Levis (19 TDs, 10 INTs) and top RB Chris Rodriguez (904 yards, 5.3 ypc) as they both prepare for the NFL draft. The offensive line has been a weak spot all season allowing the most sacks in the SEC. The defense loses depth for this bowl and wasn't good at generating a pass rush. And Kentucky is 4-12 ATS versus opponents who commit 42 or fewer penalty yards per game. Play Iowa.