Iowa at Iowa State

This is one of those intrastate rivalries in which you can often through out the stats. You don't have to look at the relative strength or weaknesses of these teams when they meet. All you have to do is look at the history between these two. One thing for sure, Iowa State is going to show up here and play their best game of the season. Iowa looked bad against Northern Iowa last week, a school they should have dominated in all aspects of the game. But in the end they needed to block two late field goal attempts just to escape with a 17-16 win. In the last 11 games in this series, Iowa State is 10-1 ATS in this game, has won straight up as a dog of 17.5 points, 9.5, 3, 5 and 28 points! That is five underdog outright wins to an average line of +12.6. They have outperformed the line in the 10 wins by 14 points per game, or two TDs. The Hawkeyes are also just 1-4 ATS in their last five road openers. Iowa State is 22-9 ATS in their last 31 home games coming off a win. This one has too much history of Goliath getting slayed to not make this one a play. I will go with Iowa State in this one.