Illinois at Wisconsin

The Wisconsin Badgers had it all last year. They had a pro QB, a big offensive line, and a tough defense. They also had Montae Ball in the backfield, running for nearly 2000 yards on 6.3 yards per carry. My how things have changed. The NFL QB is gone. Danny O'Brien is serviceable, but not a deep threat, averaging just 6.4 yards per attempt. The offensive line is not nearly as imposing this year as evidenced by Montae Ball's pedestrian 3.6 yards per carry. This is a team that went from scoring 44.6 points per game a year ago to scoring less than half that thus far this year. So, laying two TDs with a team that hasn't won by more than 11 points all season is very risky. And it's not like the Badgers have been facing world-beaters. Their resume includes games vs. UTEP, Northern Iowa and Utah State. The bottom line is that Wisconsin can't run like they could in the past and under Brett Bielema, that spells disaster. Since he took over, the Badgers are 6-15 ATS vs. good rushing defenses (those allowing under 3.25 yards per carry). Illinois has held opposing running backs to just 3.2 per tote). Granted, Illinois is far from a good team, but they are on the level of the three teams mentioned above that held their ground against the Badgers, so I would expect they will as well. The Illini have been at their best when following an ATS loss, where they are 12-3 ATS in their last 15. The Badgers have failed to cover in their last four at home. Play on Illinois.