Illinois at Iowa

Does the spread matter in this game? The last thirteen times these teams have met, the winner has won by double digits. Illinois is coming on, breaking the Top 25 with a surprising 5-1 mark. They have played good, defeating two Top 25 teams already (Penn State and Wisconsin). Iowa on the other hand is 2-4 and 0-3 in conference play. They are just 5-13 ATS dating back to last year including 2-9 vs. conference foes. This will be a matchup of strength on strength. The Illini have the 12th best rushing attack in the country (261 yards per game) while Iowa is strong against the run (allowing 3.1 yards per rush and 115 yards per game). But, Illinois is a perfect 7-0 ATS the past couple of seasons vs. good rushing defenses (those allowing under 120 yards per game). Illinois is motivated by their great play and ranking. They are the more talented team here and in the past that, has proven to be the deciding factor. We like Illinois to win and cover this small number.