Houston vs. Vanderbilt

The Vanderbilt Commodores' program has been on the rise over the last two seasons. Last year Vandy won nine games, and they have a chance to duplicate that this season if they can get by Houston. The Cougars lost four games this season, and all four games they lost were to teams that were arguably better than Vanderbilt. No team beat this Houston team by more than 7 points all season, including Louisville, BYU, Cincinnati and Central Florida. Their average margin in those games was -5 points per game. Vandy will be without QB Austyn Carta-Samuels, who had knee surgery. Turnovers have been the story for the Houston defense this season with the nation's leading 40 takeaways, and a +25 turnover margin good for best in the country in both cases. That could be problematic for QB Patton Robinette for Vanderbilt who threw three INTs in his 69 pass attempts this season. And, the Vandy offense is a yard worse per pass attempt with him under center. Houston comes in with a 12-2 ATS mark in their last 14 games, including 6-0 ATS in their last six outside the conference. The Cougs have feasted on poor pass defenses. Over the past three seasons, they are 14-4 ATS vs. teams like Vandy that allow 58%+ completion percentage (including 8-1 ATS vs. teams that allow 62% or more). Play on Houston.