Houston at Texas Tech

The Houston offense lost their biggest weapon in the offseason in Case Keenum. Although still potent, the offenseisn't the same.That has put more pressure on an already weak defense. Last week they surrendered 650 yards and 59 points to Southern Miss. Houston touched 40 on eight occasions in each of the last two years under Keenum, but just four times in nine games this season without him. Tech has the gamebreakers to take advantage and a defense that isn't great, but better than the Cougars. Tech can match scores, but get more stops along the way to pull away in this one. The Cougars are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 posted as a dog from 3.5-10, while the Red Raiders are 4-1 at home as a favorite of 3.5-10. Houston is also just 11-24 ATS in their last 35 games vs. good passing teams (those averaging 250+ yards per game). I like Tech here.