Houston at South Florida

Unbeaten South Florida is a double-digit favorite again but this is a good matchup for Houston. South Florida has played an easy schedule and faces a balanced Houston offense that averages 27.3 points per contest. Houston is #33 in the nation in passing with 270.4 yards per game behind mobile QB Kyle Postma, while RBs Duke Catalon (496 yards) and Dillon Birden (333 yards) anchor the ground game. The Cougars are on a 20-7-1 ATS run on the road, plus 21-8-1 ATS after getting more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Houston has a winning road mark and the South Florida Bulls are 2-5-1 ATS at home against a team with a winning road record. South Florida was an 11-point favorite last week against Tulane and won 34-28, allowing 194 yards rushing and 221 passing. This will be a close one and Houston is 17-8-1 ATS after gaining 100 or fewer yards rushing in their previous game. Take the points and play Houston.