Houston at East Carolina

E. Carolina defends their CUSA championship in this game against the high-flying Cougars. While Houston's offense can certainly get it done, their defense is among the worst in the nation. When they are playing bad teams, it doesn't matter. But, when facing a legitimate team, they can struggle. In the second half of the season, Houston played two solid programs in Tulsa and UCF, both on the road as they are here. They lost one of those outright and were 0-2 ATS. So, while they have shown the ability to absolutely crush mediocre competition, and play well at home, there are questions when they head to the road vs. a formidable opponent. On the road this Cougars teams is allowing a ridiculous 36 points per game, so expect E. Carolina to have success when they have the ball. And, given that the Pirates defense has allowed just 18 points per game at home, they should also have success slowing down Case Keenum and the Houston offense. Houston is 0-6 ATS since last season when coming off back-to-back wins. Over the past three seasons they are 0-7 ATS as a road favorite of a TD or less. Meanwhile, E. Carolina is 21-10 ATS as an underdog under Skip Holtz. I like the Pirates at home plus the points.