Houston at Central Florida

This game is a lot bigger mismatch than the line that it has been tagged with, as Houston is a three TD favorite over Central Florida. Houston won its last game 42-7 leading wire-to-wire, and their perfect 6-0 mark has them ranked #21 in the country. Central Florida has yet to win a game at 0-7. All you have to do is look at the meager offense that generates less than four yards per play for a big chunk of the answer why. Another reason is the 8.2 yards per pass attempt they allow. Put it all together and the Knights are getting out-gained by 138 yards per game. Houston loves to play fast, and they have averaged 86 plays per game on the road, and that just means the distance between these teams, and yardage gained, is greater because the Cougars are going to run a lot of plays. The Cougars own the best cover mark on the road in FBS over their last 26 games at 20-5-1 ATS. They are also 23-8-1 ATS in their last 32 when following a win. The Knights are now 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 after allowing 200+ on the ground in their last contest. Houston rolls in this one.