Houston at Central Florida

This is a big challenge for Central Florida as they have an offense that ranked dead last of all teams last year. They have moved up this season, but not by much as they rank 109 out of 120 teams. While the defense remains the stability of this team, they are going to see more offensive firepower here than they have seen all season. Houston had the best offense in football last year and sits atop again this season at 42 points per game. The Cougars' offense is for real as they have played against three BCS Conference schools and averaged 35 points against them! Against anyone else, the offense has been even better at 45.6 ppg. These teams didn't meet a year ago, but as a marker of UCF against an elite offense, the Knights were torched for 49 vs. Tulsa last year with their No. 43 ranked defense. This year their defense has dropped to No. 56. I find it difficult to believe that they can keep this Houston team away from 40, and the Knights have reached the 30 mark just three times in the last two years. I'm going with Houston in this one.