Fresno State at New Mexico State

Fresno State is just 3-6 overall and 1-3 away from home. Their defense is atrocious. They allow 36.2 points per game (No. 113 in the nation), and on the road they've allowed 36, 42, 24 and 45 points. The Fresno State defense has given up big plays at an alarming rate. Missed tackles have led to big gains, and blown coverage and assignments have left gaping holes for opposing backs and receivers to run through on their way to the end zone. It has been happening all season, with a 41-21 loss to Louisiana Tech last week. Tech scored on pass plays of 45, 22 and 75 yards in the first half and had a 53-yard scoring run as well. Wholesale changes are not available because there is no surplus of bodies to add to the mix. The Bulldogs are 7-10-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall, 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 games on grass and 6-15 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. New Mexico State also has defensive problems, but at least they have some offense. The passing offense is improved, averaging 295 yards and 27 points per game. The Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Over the past three seasons, the Aggies are 9-1 ATS vs. really bad defensive teams like Fresno (teams allowing 31+ ppg). Take the Aggies with the points.