Florida State at Virginia

The jury is still out on this Florida State team. They beat BYU with a solid effort, but the Cougars are way down this season. FSU's wins over Wake Forest and Samford don't tell us anything, and their loss to Oklahoma was by 30. So, it's unclear how good this team is. The Cavaliers played USC to a field goal in a game here early, outgaining the Trojans in the process. So I expect another tough fight from there here, again at home. These teams stack-up even on both offense and defense. The Cavs' defense is ranked No. 19, and the Noles sit at No. 21. On offense, Florida State is ranked 30th while Virginia is ranked 33rd. Granted, the Seminoles have had a more difficult schedule, but the Cavs have shown they are no pushover. Christin Ponder in his fifth year in the program and is not off to a great start. His yards per pass are down 1.5 yards and his INT's, which were limited to seven a year ago, is at three already. Then Seminoles have not been a good road team, especially posted in the favorite’s role from 3.5-10 points, covering just one of their last 11. Then Cavs have been good following a game where they allowed less than 50 yards rushing at 6-1 ATS. The Noles are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine after a a conference win. They are also just 2-6 straight-up the past three seasons when facing a defense that allows 17 or fewer points per game (Virginia has allowed just 12.3 per contest). This one has live dog written all over it, so I'll back Virginia.