Florida at Oklahoma

The National Championship will be decided tonight as the Sooners take on the Gators. Early in the season it seemed as though neither of these teams were destined to be here. Oklahoma suffered an early loss to Texas and Florida an early loss to Mississippi. It is the way these teams have played since then that earned them a spot in the BCS National Championship. They both truly deserve to be playing in this game. It's hard to ignore what the Oklahoma offense has done in their last five games, scoring over 60 ppg in each. It's the first time any team has ever done that, yet they find themselves an underdog here. There is a reason for that. The Oklahoma offense gets all the ink, but Florida has been their equal and more offensively. The Gators have averaged 51 ppg themselves over the last eight games. The difference is they did it vs. seven opponents that rank an average of #23 in the country on defense. Meanwhile the Sooners put up their gaudy numbers against opponents that average #93 in the country on defense! I'm not diminishing what the Oklahoma offense has done. They are a top offensive team. But the fact is, they haven't played a defense ranked in the top half of the NCAA rankings in their last seven games while Florida hasn't played a team ranked below #38 in the last seven excluding their game vs. a non FBS team. So while it's assumed that Oklahoma is the better offense, Florida's could actually be better. At the very least, it is certainly more tested and won't shrink in this game. Defensively these teams are not on the same level. Florida has given up over 21 points to just one opponent the entire season. On average, they held opponents to just 12.8 per game. Oklahoma on the season has allowed nearly double that - 24.5 ppg. The Sooners allowed 21+ points in each of their last eight games, averaging 31.3 ppg allowed over that span. The Sooners offense has disguised the fact that this defense is just not very good. To put that in perspective, the 31.3 per game would rank #98 of 120 teams this season! Florida has won its last nine games by a ridiculous average margin of 36.4 points per game. Urban Meyer 26-5 ATS in all non-conference games in his coaching career. He is 3-1 SU and ATS in Bowl games while Bob Stoops is just 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS in Bowl games. The Gators have a huge defensive advantage in my eyes, and it is the biggest reason I'll back them tonight. Defense wins championships, and the Gators are on their way to one this year!