Florida at LSU

What a difference a new coach can make! When new Florida coach Jim McElwain took over, he admitted that the offense lacked good skill position players. But former coach Wil Muschamp stockpiled great defensive players and the Gators are unbeaten, and reaping the benefits, allowing 14.3 points per game. They shut down Kentucky on the road, winning 14-9, and come off a pair of SEC wins over Ole Miss and Missouri, allowing 10 and three points. They will continue to lean on that defense with quarterback Will Grier suspended, but QB Treon Harris actually started the season opener and has played in the last two contests. He has 269 passing yards and two touchdowns this season, 63 yards rushing and no turnovers. Florida is 6-0 ATS on the road and 5-2 UNDER the total against a team with a winning record. Defensive linemen Jonathan Bullard (4.5 sacks), Alex McCalister (four) and Joey Ivie (3.45) lead a defense that has held four opponents to 13 points or less. LSU can play defense, too, at 6-2 UNDER the total in SEC play. The Gators lead the SEC and rank tied for eighth nationally in turnover margin (plus-8) while the Tigers are second in the league and tied for #11 in the country (plus-6). But LSU is one-dimensional on offense, like last year, with quarterback Brandon Harris throwing only four TDs and completing just 57% of his passes. The run-oriented Tigers will find yards and points tough to come by against the outstanding Florida D-line. LSU is 1-4 ATS at home against a team with a winning road record. Florida is 6-2 ATS at LSU and the UNDER is 13-6 when these fierce defensive schools meet, including 7-3 UNDER at LSU. Play Florida and the UNDER.